Macro Sentiment Improves, Aluminum Prices Fluctuate and Recover [Institutional Commentary]

The US dollar index weakened, and overseas metal markets rose across the board overnight, with the three-month LME aluminum price increasing by 0.68% to $2,459.5/mt. The domestic night session opened low and closed high, with the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract settling at 19,955 yuan/mt. In the morning spot market, changes were relatively small. In the east China market, suppliers stood firm on quotes to control the pace of shipments, while downstream end-users engaged in some restocking. Overall, the trading volume did not show a significant increase, and the mainstream transaction prices were at 19,970 yuan/mt, basically flat with the futures market. The south China market was relatively weak, with downstream end-users purchasing only for immediate needs, and suppliers actively shipping goods to switch lines. The mainstream transaction prices hovered around 19,920 yuan/mt. Recent consumption has slightly declined overall, with terminal exports affected by US tariff policies, which have also impacted aluminum processing enterprises. However, domestic consumption remains resilient. The supply side continues to show little change. Inventory destocking continues to provide support for aluminum prices, and recent improvements in macro sentiment have helped aluminum prices hold up well. In terms of operations, it is recommended to adopt a bullish stance on dips, while caution is advised when chasing highs.